If you run the same scenario 20,000 times, there is a chance that Texas Tech would end the season 5-7. The problem with the FPI predicting season totals is that the FPI is a fluid marker, if you win the first two games, you're FPI ranking improves and your percentages jump early.

Conversely, if you lose early, your FPI ranking is hindered and you won't be projected as strongly in the coming weeks.

In the most basic sense though, without most of the information that makes FPI credible like game results and strength of schedule remaining based on those results, Texas Tech is only favored in five games heading into 2022.

Both Murray State and Houston are projected to win in Lubbock. You're also the betting favorite in most books against the Houston Cougars. The Red Raiders are also projected to beat Kansas, big surprise.

Here are all 12 games projected win percentage for Texas Tech and a little more information on ESPN's FPI.

Texas Tech Will Go 5-7 if the FPI is Correct

The ESPN FPI, or the Football Power Index, is a mathematical formula like they have in any other league. It claims to, "measure a team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field." according to ESPN. The projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using the FPI as a model. The preseason projections are incomplete because a large piece of the puzzle is results that have already happened, impacting the remaining schedule. So, based on half the puzzle, Texas Tech is projected to get wins in five of their games. These projections change daily once the season starts, but it's good to get a baseline on what is analytically expected of you heading into the season.

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